No PA + No Hamas = Hamas

The PA is the worst option for governing Gaza, except for all the other ones

Picture by Simon Walker / No 10 Downing Street

One of the common refrains from Netanyahu and his allies in respect to post-conflict Gaza is that the war must go on so that Hamas cannot control Gaza and also that the Palestinian Authority (PA) cannot control Gaza. This issue has again come to the forefront, because the negotiation on Phase II of the hostage deal requires agreement on governance for post-conflict Gaza. Unfortunately Netanyahu’s “No PA/No Hamas” formula is a recipe for either endless war or for Hamas controlling Gaza in perpetuity. Let me explain.

As I’ve written before, you need some kind of “hold” force to come in and provide security and replace Hamas or else Hamas will just continue to control Gaza. This is basic counterinsurgency 101. History has shown it again, and again and again. Lets look at the various options (none are good).

First, there are two options that involve no deal on Phase II and restarting the war. This probably means Israel fails to recover most of the remaining hostages alive.

• Full Israeli control - This is the Smotrich plan. The IDF forcefully retakes control of all of Gaza and ethnically cleanses Palestinians and brings in Jewish settlers. In addition to just being morally reprehensible, this would be a recipe for a deeply costly forever war for Israel. Also, if Israel was successful in executing this plan it’d also end up as an international pariah state with many cases in front of the ICC. And again, under this plan most of the remaining hostages do not come home.

• Chaos/perpetual war/Hamas control - There is no agreement on the end of the war. The fighting restarts. Israel does periodic strikes and incursions into Gaza. Gaza basically becomes the Somalia of the 1990s on the Mediterranean. Hamas will still control Gaza or you’ll have even worse extremist splinter groups pop up. Israel will be making a massive military investment for years and Palestinians will live in horrible conditions in Gaza in perpituity. It’s the most likely scenario, and where things seem to be headed

In the ideal world, there is some kind of agreement on Phase II at some point in the weeks ahead (perhaps after a Phase I extension). As part of it, maybe you can even get Hamas leadership and core fighters to agree to exile to a third country – similar to an agreement the U.S. helped broker with the PLO in Lebanon in 1982, which led to Arafat and many of his fighters moving to Tunisia. Even that seems like it might be a stretch, but let's say you get there. You still need a security force on the ground in Gaza. What are the options.

• Local Gazan Families - This was an original Israeli idea last year. Just have local tribes and families take over. Israel tried it, and Hamas killed a bunch of these people. It’s just not realistic to have them take over. They don’t have the weapons or the popular base of support.

• The United States - Trump’s idea to have the U.S. take over Gaza and turn it into the “Riviera of the Middle East.” The Arab States and Palestinians have already rejected this plan. But even more importantly, who is providing security on the ground? Trump has already ruled out U.S. troops. If it’s no one, then Hamas will just stay in place.

• Arab-led International Force - This is not a bad option - especially if the Egyptians will lead it. They know Gaza well and can play the role of a hold force. However, they are incredibly hesitant to come in and own this. We will see what comes out of the Arab League Summit, but I doubt it will be a commitment to boots on the ground. Maybe maybe maybe you can get there with them, but they will insist on being able to transition their forces over time to someone else relatively quickly so they don’t get stuck in a permanent occupation of Gaza. Their preferred option has consistently been the Palestinian Security Forces (PASF), which report to the PA.

All of this leads you to the PA, which as the old saying about democracy goes, “is the worst form of government except for all the other ones.”

The PA is far from an ideal candidate to take over Gaza. There is a long history of poor decision making by the Palestinian leadership that goes back to the days before the PA. Mahoumud Abbas has now ruled the West Bank for 20 years without new elections. He is relatively feckless and indecisive. The PA suffers from a legitimacy crisis and Abbas himself is deeply unpopular in both Gaza and the West Bank. The PA desperately needs new blood. There are corruption issues, and the PA struggles to even keep control of the West Bank. Taking on Gaza would be a massive lift.

Still the PA has some things going for it. It is NOT Hamas. Israeli leaders eager to undercut the PA cynically equate it with Hamas and say they are all the same, but the past few weeks are a stark reminder of the differences. The PA does not murder babies and give them back to Israel through grotesque public ceremonies. It does not hold Israelis hostage under tunnels in Gaza for over a year, or murder hundreds of party goers at a festival. Abbas sometimes says deplorable things that are offensive to Israeli ears, but that is simply not the same as what Hamas has done. And remember that a meaningful part of the Israeli coalition is calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza, which doesn’t exactly sound great to Palestinians.

The PA has largely pursued a policy of non-violence towards Israel for 20 years. It has established, with American support and training, security forces that have fought extremists in the West Bank - usually successfully.

And the PA could be much more effective, if Israel was willing to take on a cooperative posture instead of undercutting it at every turn. When the PA announces a new government with more capable technocratic leadership, Smotrich starves it of funds. For years, Israel has refused to approve the transfer of basic equipment to the PASF such as bullets or body armor, that would allow it to be more effective. In contrast, before October 7th it cut a deal with Hamas to allow in millions of dollars to Gaza through Qatar.

The bottom line is this. Israel has a choice when it comes to Phase II. It could try to work out some kind of deal that gets all the hostages out, includes some combination of exile of Hamas leaders and fighters, a temporary Arab and international force and transitional governance structure that includes both local Gazans and the PA, and eventually transitions to PASF and PA control. If this works, then maybe over time Hamas is dramatically weakened or permanently removed as a major force in Gaza. If it fails, which it likely will, then we are where we are today with Hamas in control and perpetual fighting.

The alternative is to continue to insist on “No Hamas and No PA.” There will be no deal. No hostages out. Hamas in control and perpetual fighting any way.