Excellent analysis. I am not sure I agree with you re whether Israel should have waited for a diplomatic solution. It seems from what I’ve read that they were very close to a nuclear weapon. And I do agree that the war end in Gaza should end and the hostages all come home. I wonder if this war with Iran will have any bearing on that.
I spoke to the fly on the wall of the Situation Room who told me Trump & Co are worried their bunkerbusters won't be sufficiently destructive, and additionally they fear the Chinese have supplied air defence to Iran in the hope of shooting down a B2 or disrupting the raids. Hence Trump's reluctant on/off moves and Israeli anxiety.
If Israel wants to start a war, it can carry out its war and end it more itself. The US was under negotiations, not starting a war and we should be completely out of it. We should pull all aid for Israel all military logistics support only give some defensive support if truly needed it. They are the world fourth largest arm supplier themselves.
Thanks for this very helpful analysis. I have 2 questions, if you’re willing:
What, in your view, would a viable strategic off-ramp look like at this time, for both Israel and Iran—that avoids full regional escalation yet still allows each side to claim some form of ‘success’ or deterrence?
And if the U.S. directly strikes Fordow (say with a bunker-buster) - what does that do to the regional order/ what is that likely to unleash?
Excellent analysis. I am not sure I agree with you re whether Israel should have waited for a diplomatic solution. It seems from what I’ve read that they were very close to a nuclear weapon. And I do agree that the war end in Gaza should end and the hostages all come home. I wonder if this war with Iran will have any bearing on that.
I spoke to the fly on the wall of the Situation Room who told me Trump & Co are worried their bunkerbusters won't be sufficiently destructive, and additionally they fear the Chinese have supplied air defence to Iran in the hope of shooting down a B2 or disrupting the raids. Hence Trump's reluctant on/off moves and Israeli anxiety.
If Israel wants to start a war, it can carry out its war and end it more itself. The US was under negotiations, not starting a war and we should be completely out of it. We should pull all aid for Israel all military logistics support only give some defensive support if truly needed it. They are the world fourth largest arm supplier themselves.
In what universe do we have a diplomatic team in this administration that is up to this gargantuan task. They’re just going to go blow up Fordow.
Thanks for this very helpful analysis. I have 2 questions, if you’re willing:
What, in your view, would a viable strategic off-ramp look like at this time, for both Israel and Iran—that avoids full regional escalation yet still allows each side to claim some form of ‘success’ or deterrence?
And if the U.S. directly strikes Fordow (say with a bunker-buster) - what does that do to the regional order/ what is that likely to unleash?
https://open.substack.com/pub/markmcinerney/p/broken-promises-israel-palestine?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1b56qu